How The Yield Curve Predicted Every Recession For The Past 50 Years

The yield curve was once just a wonky graph for academics and policymakers. But in recent years it has become a way to forecast looming recessions. The curve has helped predict every recession over the past 50 years. That means the curve accurately predicted even largely unforeseen downturns like the dot-com bubble of 2001 and the Great Recession in 2007. As a result, news of yield curve inversions can now send markets tumbling. Policymakers keep a close eye on even small changes in the curve’s composition. So how did this simple graph showing U.S. Treasury bond interest rates grow into one of the most reliable recession indicators we have? And what does a yield curve inversion really mean?

The Future of Work: A VICE News Special Report

The next Industrial Revolution is upon us, and scientists, entrepreneurs, and policymakers are warning of an imminent paradigm shift in the future of work. In partnership with the Council on Foreign Relations, VICE talks to industry leaders and laborers to learn how radical developments in automation and artificial intelligence are set to change the world of work as we know it.

The Third Industrial Revolution: A Radical New Sharing Economy

The global economy is in crisis. The exponential exhaustion of natural resources, declining productivity, slow growth, rising unemployment, and steep inequality, forces us to rethink our economic models. Where do we go from here? In this feature-length documentary, social and economic theorist Jeremy Rifkin lays out a road map to usher in a new economic system. A Third Industrial Revolution is unfolding with the convergence of three pivotal technologies: an ultra-fast 5G communication internet, a renewable energy internet, and a driverless mobility internet, all connected to the Internet of Things embedded across society and the environment. This 21st century smart digital infrastructure is giving rise to a radical new sharing economy that is transforming the way we manage, power and move economic life. But with climate change now ravaging the planet, it needs to happen fast. Change of this magnitude requires political will and a profound ideological shift.

Panic: The Untold Story of the 2008 Financial Crisis

VICE on HBO looks at factors that led to the 2008 financial crisis and the efforts made by then-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Timothy Geithner, and Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke to save the United States from an economic collapse. The feature-length documentary explores the challenges these men faced, as well as the consequences of their decisions.

Hank Paulson on The David Rubenstein Show

Dec.19 -- Hank Paulson, chairman and founder of the Paulson Institute, former U.S. Treasury secretary, and former chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., talks about how the Watergate scandal impacted his career, fighting climate change, expanding the business for Goldman Sachs in China, and trying to save Lehman Brothers during the financial crisis. He appears on "The David Rubenstein Show: Peer-to-Peer Conversations." The interview was recorded Oct. 2 in Washington.

Cash Is Back. Here's Why

Cash is often viewed as a safe, but boring investment. But lately, it’s looking shinier than it has in a while. WSJ explains why investors are piling trillions into money market accounts, even as stocks reach new highs.

The $3.7 Trillion Corporate Debt Question

About half of all issued corporate bond debt is rated triple-B, the lowest score for investment-grade debt. Analysts say all this debt could be a mess in the making, especially if the economy enters a recession. WSJ's Gunjan Banerji explains

How Negative Yields Work

Negative yields are occurring with greater frequency in global bond markets. What generates negative yields and why do investors continue to buy these money-losing bonds?

What GDP Says About the Economy

Economists say the U.S. would be better off if the country's GDP rose at a 3% rate or more each year, rather than the 2% rate it has been growing at for a while. WSJ explains what GDP is, and why economists are so fixated on its growth.

How Fannie and Freddie Prop Up America's Favorite Mortgage

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac back about half of new mortgages in the U.S. Now, talks are heating up about reshaping or shrinking the two companies, a move that could impact millions of Americans.

Low Inflation Haunts the Fed: Here's Why

Inflation is among the most powerful forces in financial markets. It dictates the supply of money in the economy, and changes interest rates, which are the cost of borrowing money. Here's how it works, and how the Fed works to regulate it.

Why Investors Are Obsessed With the Inverted Yield Curve

Amid a shaky marketplace, investors are eyeing the yield curve for signs of economic stability. History shows that when the yield curve inverts, a recession may soon follow. Photo Composite: Stephanie Swart for The Wall Street Journal.